* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082017 08/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 52 49 44 35 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 52 49 44 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 40 43 46 44 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 17 17 17 18 12 30 48 56 65 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 0 -5 0 3 1 4 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 25 29 15 10 18 8 355 281 262 250 247 245 237 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.0 24.1 16.8 18.4 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 153 149 148 138 138 140 129 105 77 80 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 132 127 126 117 120 125 117 96 73 74 71 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 6 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 50 54 59 59 51 46 46 50 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 9 11 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -35 -30 -35 -34 -31 -23 -26 -3 40 50 80 52 200 MB DIV 19 24 14 14 5 19 12 43 24 86 70 82 102 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 -1 3 -1 7 2 47 66 31 LAND (KM) 815 838 738 659 584 497 538 630 610 593 569 1007 1464 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.3 29.3 30.1 30.9 32.6 34.6 36.8 39.0 41.4 43.8 45.7 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 71.7 72.1 72.2 72.3 71.7 70.1 66.7 61.3 54.6 47.1 39.9 33.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 9 10 15 21 26 29 29 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 28 29 32 34 9 28 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. -5. -15. -27. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 22. 19. 14. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.2 71.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.63 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 244.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.0% 11.4% 6.9% 5.9% 11.1% 12.5% 14.3% Logistic: 3.5% 13.8% 7.7% 3.0% 1.4% 5.0% 6.6% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.7% 6.4% 3.3% 2.5% 5.4% 6.4% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 52 49 44 35 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 49 46 41 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 44 41 36 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 29 32 35 35 32 27 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT