* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 46 52 55 50 45 37 32 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 46 48 51 45 41 33 28 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 31 36 38 38 35 31 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 2 2 6 13 18 23 38 55 57 49 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 -2 3 8 6 3 0 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 350 353 275 233 220 240 258 235 256 256 277 286 289 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.1 28.0 26.7 26.0 25.4 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 172 170 157 141 126 119 111 105 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 163 162 163 166 168 157 138 121 111 99 90 88 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 4 4 4 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 67 69 68 59 47 42 41 45 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 11 14 14 13 9 9 8 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 14 2 -10 -24 -16 17 27 59 -8 0 -52 -45 -20 200 MB DIV 56 64 81 80 80 83 105 69 64 64 45 19 4 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 0 2 18 -10 -9 2 11 0 -2 LAND (KM) 108 139 199 287 295 94 154 613 891 1109 1142 1180 1127 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.2 21.2 23.6 26.3 29.4 32.6 34.3 35.2 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 83.8 84.1 84.1 83.6 81.6 78.2 73.9 69.5 64.4 59.6 56.5 54.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 10 17 22 24 26 25 18 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 44 54 66 80 69 26 41 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 2. -5. -15. -24. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 3. -3. -4. -6. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 21. 27. 30. 25. 20. 12. 7. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.4 83.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.99 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.48 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 40.9% 21.2% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.1% 68.0% 50.8% 40.5% 19.2% 32.2% 6.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 5.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 38.3% 24.3% 16.6% 6.4% 10.8% 8.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/27/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 46 48 51 45 41 33 28 22 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 43 45 48 42 38 30 25 19 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 38 40 43 37 33 25 20 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 29 31 34 28 24 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT