* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 22 26 33 40 42 45 46 46 44 V (KT) LAND 25 22 23 25 26 31 38 44 47 45 46 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 23 24 25 29 30 31 30 29 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 13 12 12 15 24 20 14 16 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 2 6 2 7 8 SHEAR DIR 254 276 269 283 284 245 228 228 245 211 208 221 253 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.1 28.4 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 170 171 170 171 166 164 170 157 145 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 164 169 170 166 166 160 161 174 155 139 125 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 4 3 5 5 4 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 74 71 72 70 68 58 48 45 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 5 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 46 46 50 53 48 76 24 22 -24 -48 -44 200 MB DIV 77 42 41 50 49 90 110 142 84 18 31 27 17 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 2 0 4 0 -7 -14 -20 -9 -3 9 LAND (KM) 21 -10 -47 -107 -68 56 15 144 54 132 440 729 923 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.2 16.4 18.2 20.1 21.7 23.2 24.6 26.3 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.3 83.9 84.8 85.8 87.4 87.6 85.8 82.1 77.6 73.8 69.9 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 10 10 11 16 22 21 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 16 62 50 76 75 79 62 72 71 36 16 23 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. 1. 8. 15. 17. 20. 21. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 83.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 35.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 18.7% 13.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 22.4% 11.7% 2.6% 1.0% 7.7% 21.0% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 13.7% 8.4% 3.4% 999.0% 2.6% 12.7% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/26/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 22 23 25 26 31 38 44 47 45 46 46 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 33 40 46 49 47 48 48 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 36 42 45 43 44 44 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 28 34 37 35 36 36 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT