* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 35 39 46 48 41 40 42 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 23 22 24 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 26 22 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 17 13 8 9 21 30 23 14 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 3 5 6 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 244 245 247 265 264 272 243 195 172 176 182 155 121 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.7 29.6 29.7 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 170 171 164 163 165 142 141 142 141 144 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 165 170 170 163 166 165 136 131 132 133 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 -52.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 1 4 3 4 2 3 3 6 700-500 MB RH 80 76 76 78 80 77 75 71 74 76 74 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 11 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 40 49 63 68 68 58 64 -3 5 0 -23 -11 200 MB DIV 178 133 101 79 81 103 91 53 66 59 25 0 6 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 2 4 -2 1 1 -1 -3 -6 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 23 0 -44 -129 -213 -55 -55 -50 52 118 98 69 94 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.6 13.6 14.5 15.5 15.4 14.5 14.0 13.7 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.2 83.4 83.9 84.7 85.6 88.1 90.5 92.6 94.0 93.8 93.0 92.2 92.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 6 8 10 13 12 9 5 5 5 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 34 16 58 32 43 35 39 30 10 8 11 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 19. 11. 10. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 83.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.96 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.68 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 19.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 25.0% 14.3% 7.9% 6.3% 13.3% 16.9% 17.8% Logistic: 3.0% 35.7% 17.0% 4.8% 2.9% 12.0% 47.3% 32.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 3.1% 20.7% 10.6% 4.2% 999.0% 8.4% 21.5% 16.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/26/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 23 22 24 27 18HR AGO 30 29 25 25 25 25 25 25 28 21 20 22 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 29 22 21 23 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 23 16 15 17 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT