* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 39 46 56 63 68 72 79 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 39 46 56 63 68 72 79 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 32 37 44 50 54 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 25 27 22 13 15 12 5 6 9 1 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -7 -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 1 1 -1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 67 64 67 69 72 58 52 52 339 249 288 313 3 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.4 27.5 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 148 146 144 142 141 132 120 121 120 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 147 149 149 146 139 133 134 130 116 116 111 110 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.4 -53.8 -54.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 78 78 80 79 76 70 60 54 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 13 12 15 15 18 18 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 83 64 58 57 61 65 44 30 49 61 63 65 65 200 MB DIV 59 28 38 34 26 35 44 43 51 13 15 25 1 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -9 -13 -6 -2 -1 0 3 3 4 3 1 LAND (KM) 294 389 480 581 708 950 1091 1140 1276 1567 1906 2194 2035 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.1 13.9 14.5 16.5 18.7 19.4 18.8 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.4 21.5 22.7 24.0 26.3 27.6 28.1 29.3 31.8 35.2 37.9 39.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 13 13 9 4 7 15 16 16 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 13 23 24 20 25 11 2 4 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 2. -0. 2. 2. 5. 5. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 14. 21. 31. 38. 43. 47. 54. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 19.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 39.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 39 46 56 63 68 72 79 82 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 37 44 54 61 66 70 77 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 32 39 49 56 61 65 72 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 32 42 49 54 58 65 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT