* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 45 43 39 35 27 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 19 19 23 27 33 35 36 32 34 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -6 -1 -8 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 256 272 272 259 249 267 265 282 278 298 290 289 301 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 134 132 129 128 127 127 126 125 122 125 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 113 108 104 103 101 101 101 102 101 104 106 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 7 6 3 7 3 7 3 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 68 60 61 63 64 61 60 58 57 60 61 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -86 -71 -38 -47 -44 -44 -70 -78 -83 -77 -70 -40 200 MB DIV 55 21 2 33 48 18 35 13 28 -3 4 -6 9 700-850 TADV 11 8 7 4 -2 0 -1 1 2 4 6 1 7 LAND (KM) -21 -51 -104 -148 -178 -217 -226 -247 -254 -287 -285 -228 -135 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.8 31.6 32.2 32.5 32.6 32.6 32.7 32.9 33.5 34.3 34.8 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.0 82.4 82.6 82.8 83.2 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.5 82.7 81.1 79.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 5 2 1 0 1 2 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 7 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 2. -4. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 8. 4. 0. -8. -15. -19. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.9 81.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.31 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.34 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.44 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.4% 8.2% 6.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.9% 3.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.5% 4.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/14/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT