* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 52 57 62 65 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 52 57 62 65 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 28 31 36 42 49 55 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 11 17 16 11 11 5 8 14 23 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -6 -4 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 261 265 239 255 276 322 14 330 224 219 250 257 275 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.8 30.3 29.7 28.8 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 153 157 164 168 173 165 148 137 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 147 149 149 150 157 158 164 145 126 114 114 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 47 48 50 53 59 62 63 59 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -6 -11 -24 -28 -34 -47 -44 -40 -33 -48 -60 -60 200 MB DIV 8 19 8 4 0 16 23 12 7 25 32 12 -4 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 5 9 0 -1 1 3 5 5 2 0 LAND (KM) 812 798 664 540 424 343 460 579 838 666 548 612 760 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.6 21.2 22.9 24.9 27.5 30.3 32.5 33.7 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.2 59.4 60.6 61.9 64.4 67.0 69.5 71.4 71.8 71.1 69.6 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 14 15 15 15 12 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 53 61 68 71 82 62 80 49 46 24 14 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 32. 37. 40. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 57.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.53 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.71 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.85 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 201.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.0% 11.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% Logistic: 3.8% 23.2% 12.8% 4.7% 0.0% 8.5% 13.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.8% 14.1% 8.2% 4.6% 0.0% 2.8% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/08/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 52 57 62 65 65 64 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 34 42 50 55 60 63 63 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 38 46 51 56 59 59 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 39 44 49 52 52 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT