* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 06/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 31 37 42 43 45 44 44 45 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 27 27 27 30 33 32 31 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 23 25 26 29 28 27 28 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 18 11 15 14 18 10 13 14 16 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 0 0 2 8 4 4 1 0 6 2 SHEAR DIR 269 281 296 281 241 249 230 250 236 263 252 260 266 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.1 26.6 24.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 158 155 146 142 144 142 127 124 108 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 151 148 143 132 129 133 132 117 117 106 98 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.4 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 82 82 83 80 79 75 69 59 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 13 15 13 13 12 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 42 35 47 54 51 34 20 -3 28 35 41 200 MB DIV 107 101 104 87 77 107 102 75 89 51 47 48 61 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 1 5 1 6 11 11 19 9 16 14 LAND (KM) 108 148 154 53 -23 -81 -28 128 183 40 138 498 1076 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.6 20.7 22.3 24.2 26.4 28.7 31.2 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.4 86.4 87.2 87.8 88.2 87.4 86.1 84.5 82.4 79.2 73.3 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 8 7 5 8 11 14 15 23 35 43 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 45 40 68 67 57 23 23 19 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 12. 17. 18. 20. 19. 19. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 84.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 06/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -14.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 2.2% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 06/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 06/04/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 27 27 27 30 33 32 31 31 29 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 25 25 25 28 31 30 29 29 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 21 21 21 24 27 26 25 25 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT