* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 42 48 53 56 61 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 42 48 53 36 37 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 37 30 31 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 12 13 15 8 12 19 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 5 6 4 5 0 0 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 146 140 160 189 168 180 199 198 238 222 249 238 240 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.4 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 146 146 147 150 154 155 153 160 169 173 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 149 149 150 151 155 154 151 156 165 173 168 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 12 12 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 55 54 53 49 50 50 53 56 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 47 39 34 16 8 19 16 6 -11 -3 -20 200 MB DIV 15 17 30 33 29 22 4 1 11 30 23 36 9 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -9 -5 0 0 5 1 1 9 16 13 LAND (KM) 944 928 786 654 541 511 276 80 10 0 -39 -20 -11 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.2 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.5 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.1 53.0 54.7 56.3 58.0 61.0 64.1 67.0 70.0 72.8 75.7 78.4 81.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 16 16 15 16 15 15 14 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 61 55 65 29 90 91 28 100 93 109 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 23. 28. 31. 36. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 51.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.30 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.71 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 170.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 24.2% 12.3% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% Logistic: 2.1% 15.0% 6.0% 1.3% 0.0% 3.1% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.0% 13.8% 6.2% 3.8% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/03/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 38 42 48 53 36 37 32 29 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 36 40 46 51 34 35 30 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 35 41 46 29 30 25 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 27 33 38 21 22 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT