* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182017 10/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 42 45 46 46 45 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 31 37 41 43 45 44 44 42 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 30 34 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 5 11 16 23 34 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 7 10 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 236 235 224 213 228 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.2 28.8 27.4 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 170 159 153 135 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 170 169 158 153 134 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 6 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 60 56 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 17 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 28 40 51 63 123 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 86 99 100 114 104 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 4 6 7 4 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 315 183 88 -18 102 456 480 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 20.2 21.5 23.0 24.5 28.3 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.5 83.8 83.0 81.5 79.9 75.7 71.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 18 21 24 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 70 45 16 35 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 84.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.94 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.60 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 113.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 21.0% 13.9% 7.7% 6.1% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.7% 5.7% 2.8% 2.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 31 37 41 43 45 44 44 42 41 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 29 35 39 41 43 42 42 40 39 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 30 34 36 38 37 37 35 34 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 30 32 34 33 33 31 30 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT