* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182017 10/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 46 53 59 58 59 52 45 38 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 46 44 54 53 55 47 41 34 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 41 47 47 44 40 37 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 2 7 9 9 13 12 28 29 39 49 55 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 0 6 12 5 8 3 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 356 265 236 229 240 253 254 270 285 289 297 311 323 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.5 28.4 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.3 27.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 171 173 165 149 131 124 117 117 125 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 157 162 170 169 153 130 117 104 103 111 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 70 70 62 51 36 30 27 26 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 14 14 15 12 12 9 8 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 27 30 20 26 34 -21 -4 -18 -18 -6 -49 200 MB DIV 62 72 90 87 89 103 88 37 70 9 -5 -8 -33 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 2 5 16 16 29 14 13 1 -13 -5 LAND (KM) 187 268 282 244 176 -22 475 971 1291 1459 1662 1617 1497 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.4 22.4 25.2 28.4 31.2 31.6 30.6 28.7 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.7 84.8 84.4 83.4 79.7 74.7 69.0 63.0 58.5 56.0 54.6 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 10 15 23 30 30 25 14 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 51 62 66 67 83 98 40 10 4 0 0 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -3. -11. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 3. 3. 4. -1. -1. -6. -8. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 23. 29. 28. 29. 22. 15. 8. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 84.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 65.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.94 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.52 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 49.8% 33.7% 10.4% 9.0% 23.3% 33.9% 18.6% Logistic: 14.2% 49.7% 33.3% 16.9% 6.1% 22.7% 6.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 6.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 35.3% 22.7% 9.1% 5.0% 15.4% 13.3% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/27/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 41 46 44 54 53 55 47 41 34 25 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 42 40 50 49 51 43 37 30 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 34 44 43 45 37 31 24 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 23 33 32 34 26 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT