* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 53 60 64 66 66 53 44 41 38 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 53 60 54 36 30 29 30 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 50 54 62 58 37 30 29 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 4 6 6 5 20 32 46 53 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 0 0 6 4 5 11 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 74 60 8 312 311 261 264 257 258 280 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.2 27.9 25.7 24.0 22.5 18.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 167 164 167 157 138 115 102 93 79 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 168 165 163 143 125 106 93 83 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 -52.2 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 7 7 8 4 5 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 80 80 77 76 73 68 60 53 44 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 18 20 18 17 17 13 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 142 120 99 59 17 36 2 -13 5 -32 -24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 77 81 69 49 85 61 60 58 33 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -4 9 12 12 22 80 27 14 20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 213 209 72 140 345 122 -24 -417 -470 -167 41 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 19.3 20.9 22.8 24.7 28.0 30.7 34.2 37.8 40.2 41.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.5 86.2 87.2 88.3 89.3 88.3 85.5 81.2 76.4 71.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 21 19 15 18 23 23 20 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 85 113 64 33 44 34 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 0. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 20. 24. 26. 26. 13. 4. 1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.8 84.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.34 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.90 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 57.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 40.0% 18.8% 9.7% 7.9% 15.9% 28.5% 20.4% Logistic: 10.3% 31.0% 15.7% 4.3% 3.3% 20.4% 20.6% 5.8% Bayesian: 3.2% 29.0% 13.6% 1.5% 1.3% 2.9% 3.0% 0.1% Consensus: 7.2% 33.3% 16.0% 5.2% 4.2% 13.1% 17.4% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 47 50 53 60 54 36 30 29 30 26 23 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 55 49 31 25 24 25 21 18 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 49 43 25 19 18 19 15 DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 40 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT