* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 56 56 55 56 45 24 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 56 56 55 56 45 24 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 55 54 54 54 48 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 6 5 15 23 28 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 4 0 2 0 -1 1 12 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 319 318 309 182 261 234 235 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.8 26.4 25.8 21.4 21.2 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 119 120 125 122 118 91 92 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 101 104 110 108 107 86 86 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -51.3 -51.4 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 52 47 44 42 42 40 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 27 26 26 31 27 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 43 83 100 103 57 34 -32 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 19 26 13 16 8 32 -4 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 2 -2 -24 -27 -37 -55 -148 -145 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 478 561 626 716 733 804 683 1039 1495 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.8 36.8 37.1 37.4 38.9 41.3 44.5 48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.0 68.4 66.8 64.5 62.2 56.4 49.0 40.1 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 19 21 27 33 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 0 2 6 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -1. -5. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -15. -36. -40. -43. -45. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.8 70.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.14 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 376.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.57 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.2% 12.6% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.7% 2.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.6% 5.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/28/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 57 56 56 55 56 45 24 20 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 57 56 57 46 25 21 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 54 55 44 23 19 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 49 50 39 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT