* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 52 50 43 38 38 39 36 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 52 50 43 38 38 39 36 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 55 54 50 47 47 48 47 40 32 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 20 15 14 2 5 16 19 37 69 81 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -1 1 5 5 5 11 15 15 22 14 SHEAR DIR 305 290 298 300 293 323 299 217 191 220 213 228 235 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.5 26.5 26.0 23.2 17.8 16.6 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 115 113 111 111 120 122 119 100 81 80 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 96 94 92 91 93 101 107 108 94 78 76 73 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 -49.7 -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.1 -49.5 -47.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 60 58 56 52 43 38 37 35 17 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 38 37 38 38 35 32 31 31 29 24 18 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 20 14 7 8 35 96 70 92 52 25 45 200 MB DIV 10 1 0 5 1 -23 27 19 51 73 23 -19 -32 700-850 TADV 12 4 4 6 3 0 8 0 0 44 -29 -121 -169 LAND (KM) 307 284 269 271 280 362 522 635 681 644 675 1309 985 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.5 36.0 36.4 37.1 38.5 40.9 44.5 48.4 52.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.0 72.8 71.8 69.7 66.0 60.8 53.7 45.0 35.2 24.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 7 12 18 26 33 38 39 38 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 7 3 1 0 1 4 17 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. -0. -9. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -14. -17. -24. -33. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -17. -22. -22. -21. -24. -37. -58. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.9 73.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.49 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 276.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 8.5% 7.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.3% 999.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/26/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 54 52 50 43 38 38 39 36 23 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 54 52 45 40 40 41 38 25 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 52 45 40 40 41 38 25 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 41 36 36 37 34 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT