* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 57 55 52 46 43 42 43 37 26 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 57 55 52 46 43 42 43 37 26 DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 59 59 57 54 52 51 52 51 44 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 15 17 16 14 13 2 6 16 22 42 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 7 11 14 19 25 24 SHEAR DIR 315 319 323 308 316 298 324 17 237 204 222 224 229 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.4 26.0 22.4 17.3 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 121 118 117 113 115 120 121 119 96 80 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 99 97 96 92 95 102 106 109 90 77 75 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 -50.5 -49.8 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 7 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 63 64 61 59 53 41 38 36 27 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 39 37 36 36 37 35 34 33 34 32 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 54 45 54 51 29 18 9 33 57 100 139 143 32 200 MB DIV 17 18 13 1 -1 21 -8 30 23 65 40 25 -22 700-850 TADV 19 17 8 1 9 4 2 19 8 10 20 31 -100 LAND (KM) 398 358 318 295 278 291 370 537 630 653 600 680 1303 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.1 33.6 34.1 34.5 35.3 35.5 36.0 36.9 38.7 41.3 44.9 49.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.1 73.1 72.7 71.8 69.8 66.5 61.0 53.5 44.7 35.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 11 18 28 34 38 37 HEAT CONTENT 2 19 14 14 10 7 7 5 3 19 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -2. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -15. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -19. -22. -23. -22. -28. -39. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 32.6 73.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.48 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 295.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 9.8% 8.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 3.6% 3.0% 2.4% 999.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/26/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 60 57 55 52 46 43 42 43 37 26 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 59 57 54 48 45 44 45 39 28 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 56 53 47 44 43 44 38 27 DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 50 44 41 40 41 35 24 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT