* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 123 126 125 123 115 108 107 110 108 104 96 V (KT) LAND 125 130 133 135 134 132 124 118 116 119 117 113 105 V (KT) LGEM 125 126 118 114 112 109 107 104 103 102 96 89 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 3 5 9 10 14 10 9 13 9 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 2 3 8 4 9 SHEAR DIR 275 6 189 280 295 255 248 213 229 223 244 244 295 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 154 154 154 154 160 161 159 153 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 142 141 141 139 139 138 142 141 137 131 120 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -49.9 -49.2 -48.8 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 55 56 54 51 54 57 61 64 63 63 60 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 31 31 31 34 36 39 42 47 47 46 45 850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 65 53 55 67 54 83 64 78 81 74 72 200 MB DIV 35 44 40 9 20 50 65 110 78 55 53 31 32 700-850 TADV 10 6 4 -1 2 2 17 11 15 14 18 16 24 LAND (KM) -22 16 84 88 89 151 255 404 552 676 671 637 498 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.5 25.1 26.6 28.1 29.7 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.1 66.9 67.7 68.4 69.1 70.2 71.2 72.0 72.5 73.0 73.4 73.4 73.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 80 31 52 53 55 63 67 64 49 57 45 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -30. -39. -46. -51. -55. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. -0. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 17. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -2. 1. 0. -2. -10. -17. -18. -15. -17. -21. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.2 66.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 846.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.11 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/20/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 130 133 135 134 132 124 118 116 119 117 113 105 18HR AGO 125 124 127 129 128 126 118 112 110 113 111 107 99 12HR AGO 125 122 121 123 122 120 112 106 104 107 105 101 93 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 114 112 104 98 96 99 97 93 85 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 104 96 90 88 91 89 85 77 IN 6HR 125 130 121 115 112 111 103 97 95 98 96 92 84 IN 12HR 125 130 133 124 118 114 106 100 98 101 99 95 87