* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 73 64 54 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 81 73 64 54 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 80 70 60 53 41 34 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 32 44 61 67 83 64 59 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 13 12 1 -3 -9 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 237 235 243 247 247 240 225 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 21.3 16.8 16.4 16.3 13.3 12.4 12.1 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 91 79 78 76 68 65 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 86 75 74 72 65 62 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -54.4 -53.8 -52.6 -51.3 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.5 -1.3 -0.9 1.8 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 44 47 50 47 47 49 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 26 25 24 23 21 15 13 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 75 79 95 95 121 139 145 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 120 95 110 108 78 50 42 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 62 12 103 129 105 83 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 654 495 530 708 954 1261 1436 1452 1344 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.7 42.4 44.0 46.2 48.3 51.5 52.5 53.0 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.0 51.8 47.5 43.8 40.0 35.9 33.6 31.9 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 35 34 34 27 14 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 34 CX,CY: 31/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -7. -12. -18. -28. -37. -45. -52. -56. -58. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -34. -41. -46. -50. -53. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -9. -14. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -12. -21. -31. -48. -63. -76. -80. -87. -92.-100.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 40.7 56.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 576.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.37 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 81 73 64 54 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 76 67 57 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 72 62 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 65 48 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 49 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT