* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 84 74 65 46 31 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 88 84 74 65 46 31 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 90 83 71 61 47 38 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 37 36 45 57 77 70 51 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 2 12 15 4 -10 -11 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 243 235 236 243 248 231 221 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 25.5 21.5 15.6 16.0 14.6 11.9 11.1 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 117 92 77 77 72 66 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 109 87 75 74 69 64 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -54.8 -52.5 -51.5 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -1.9 -0.5 1.1 2.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 40 44 49 52 45 49 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 28 26 27 26 22 22 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 42 84 86 100 106 135 172 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 92 123 101 91 89 66 48 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 10 34 10 82 87 59 -7 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 619 613 470 472 715 1156 1426 1460 1422 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 41.0 42.5 44.5 46.5 50.3 53.0 54.3 54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.3 56.3 52.3 47.9 43.5 37.2 33.9 32.4 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 34 35 37 33 23 12 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 30 CX,CY: 27/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -9. -15. -26. -36. -45. -54. -58. -60. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -34. -39. -42. -45. -46. -50. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. -0. -5. -6. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -16. -25. -43. -59. -66. -70. -77. -82. -89. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 39.5 60.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 660.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.29 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 84 74 65 46 31 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 85 75 66 47 32 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 76 67 48 33 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 71 52 37 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 52 37 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 59 44 37 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 88 84 75 69 65 50 43 39 19 19 19 19