* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082017 08/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 47 49 53 55 48 37 28 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 47 49 53 55 48 37 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 42 43 43 46 48 47 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 10 13 15 19 19 22 15 21 42 63 69 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -4 3 3 -6 4 4 SHEAR DIR 303 23 33 19 20 27 16 24 270 256 255 244 245 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.1 18.5 19.6 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 155 151 145 137 141 140 132 82 83 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 140 134 129 122 117 123 126 122 77 78 73 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 8 5 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 48 50 55 57 58 51 47 50 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 6 4 4 7 9 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -59 -37 -38 -46 -28 -51 -32 -27 3 36 55 50 200 MB DIV -7 9 17 0 13 31 -16 37 10 78 72 72 80 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 1 -2 3 0 16 25 36 50 66 91 LAND (KM) 679 800 846 782 689 570 542 665 670 597 490 848 1327 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.0 28.1 29.0 29.9 31.5 33.0 35.0 37.5 40.2 42.8 44.8 46.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.1 71.6 71.8 72.0 71.8 70.8 68.6 64.7 58.5 50.2 42.5 35.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 8 11 17 24 31 32 28 25 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 29 25 26 37 30 13 34 28 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -4. -14. -27. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -5. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 17. 19. 23. 25. 18. 7. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.9 70.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.69 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 256.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 17.6% 13.6% 8.3% 7.1% 12.2% 14.0% 16.9% Logistic: 6.6% 30.9% 20.1% 10.4% 3.5% 11.6% 12.7% 13.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% Consensus: 4.8% 16.4% 11.3% 6.3% 3.5% 8.0% 9.1% 10.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 47 47 49 53 55 48 37 28 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 43 45 49 51 44 33 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 37 39 43 45 38 27 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 28 30 34 36 29 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT