* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 08/01/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 42 43 40 35 33 32 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 42 43 40 35 33 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 32 33 33 33 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 9 11 14 17 22 21 34 34 40 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -5 0 -4 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 288 269 257 246 241 252 266 288 303 322 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.6 26.9 27.2 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 154 155 150 143 140 133 125 128 121 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 135 136 132 125 121 114 106 108 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -54.8 -55.3 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 8 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 46 48 49 55 52 50 49 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 4 -3 -26 -42 -57 -45 -39 -5 5 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 18 15 13 29 20 11 -11 1 -10 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 0 5 1 -1 -6 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 125 244 345 346 330 406 652 706 691 772 862 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.7 30.4 31.3 32.1 33.9 35.3 36.6 37.8 38.5 38.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.4 78.5 77.5 76.3 75.0 71.9 68.7 65.5 62.2 58.7 55.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 14 15 16 15 15 14 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 39 48 37 25 11 11 14 21 12 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -3. -10. -17. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 18. 15. 10. 8. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.9 79.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 99.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.8% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.0% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 08/01/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 38 42 43 40 35 33 32 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 40 41 38 33 31 30 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 35 36 33 28 26 25 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 28 25 20 18 17 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT