* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 08/01/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 27 34 39 41 42 39 35 36 36 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 37 42 44 44 42 38 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 24 25 27 28 30 31 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 10 11 12 15 21 27 32 36 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 -7 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 305 297 272 256 225 241 242 269 279 304 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 149 153 156 155 148 140 137 131 124 123 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 135 138 136 129 121 117 112 107 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 8 7 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 46 46 45 48 50 53 49 46 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -3 2 -4 -22 -44 -48 -32 -15 4 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 17 22 16 17 28 16 8 1 11 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 -1 0 6 2 0 -5 2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -2 123 253 376 363 362 509 693 719 742 830 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.7 29.4 30.3 31.2 32.8 34.4 35.9 37.1 38.1 38.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.5 79.3 78.2 77.1 76.0 73.4 70.5 67.4 64.2 60.3 56.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 13 13 14 15 14 15 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 38 57 51 36 20 8 9 17 15 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. -1. -8. -15. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 9. 14. 16. 17. 14. 10. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.9 80.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 164.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 81.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.9% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.3% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 08/01/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 30 37 42 44 44 42 38 39 39 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 34 39 41 41 39 35 36 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 30 35 37 37 35 31 32 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 23 28 30 30 28 24 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT