* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 07/31/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 46 50 51 49 44 38 36 35 V (KT) LAND 35 32 35 37 40 43 46 48 46 41 35 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 34 35 35 37 39 40 40 39 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 18 19 15 16 22 22 30 34 39 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 -4 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 274 294 290 265 260 246 253 242 268 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.3 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 158 153 148 151 154 146 142 140 130 125 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 138 135 130 132 134 126 121 119 113 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 40 40 41 42 49 48 53 51 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 8 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 0 -6 5 -29 -39 -44 -31 -22 -2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 18 -7 4 17 23 47 25 9 7 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 5 5 0 1 2 0 -1 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 -65 39 147 271 315 283 391 593 650 685 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.0 28.3 29.1 29.9 31.5 33.2 34.8 36.1 37.3 38.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.2 81.2 80.2 79.2 78.3 76.4 74.1 71.7 69.0 65.4 60.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 11 12 13 13 14 17 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 24 8 37 49 40 18 7 13 15 19 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -5. -11. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 16. 14. 9. 3. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.6 82.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 07/31/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 240.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 69.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.2% 10.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 4.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.3% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 6.1% 4.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 07/31/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 07/31/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 35 37 40 43 46 48 46 41 35 33 32 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 42 45 48 50 48 43 37 35 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 39 42 44 42 37 31 29 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 31 34 36 34 29 23 21 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT