* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 09/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 55 62 69 68 75 80 90 91 95 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 55 62 69 68 75 80 90 91 95 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 55 60 61 61 62 65 70 80 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 3 8 12 11 7 12 10 11 2 5 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 5 7 8 2 3 0 3 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 230 227 227 242 274 263 270 243 258 27 26 30 359 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 161 160 153 147 146 145 148 150 153 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 165 165 166 164 152 143 141 138 139 140 143 145 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 10 11 9 10 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 52 52 56 58 63 68 69 71 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 21 23 25 22 25 26 30 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 55 63 63 60 61 70 75 100 117 122 128 122 128 200 MB DIV 49 75 89 86 74 93 36 61 82 89 94 67 92 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 2 4 4 5 4 3 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 296 303 344 370 387 248 180 240 307 368 288 169 58 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 15 12 10 8 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 38 47 64 78 101 48 37 36 40 59 68 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 4. 8. 9. 13. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 29. 28. 35. 40. 50. 51. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.2 59.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.78 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.49 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.65 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.48 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.88 3.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 262.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 53.1% 32.5% 15.0% 9.8% 26.5% 33.5% Logistic: 5.9% 23.9% 10.2% 2.3% 0.0% 8.8% 14.5% Bayesian: 4.2% 12.9% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% Consensus: 6.8% 30.0% 15.3% 5.8% 3.3% 11.9% 16.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 09/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/28/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 50 55 62 69 68 75 80 90 91 95 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 51 58 65 64 71 76 86 87 91 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 44 51 58 57 64 69 79 80 84 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 42 49 48 55 60 70 71 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT