* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942016 09/12/16 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 39 40 41 48 48 47 46 48 48
V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 39 40 41 48 48 47 46 48 48
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 36 34 32 32 32 35 39 43 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 25 23 25 31 34 35 30 22 21 23 29 30 41
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 7 6 4 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 4 5
SHEAR DIR 227 224 205 215 225 207 206 197 227 220 221 219 232
SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.4 27.6 26.4 20.1 16.0
POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 137 138 144 141 131 130 134 123 86 77
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 124 124 125 128 124 114 112 118 110 81 74
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 4 1 0
700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 53 52 51 51 57 58 56 55 55 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 22 21 20 20 24 29
850 MB ENV VOR 15 3 3 6 -1 17 26 44 34 16 63 174 136
200 MB DIV 19 34 77 77 46 36 32 60 36 75 58 83 83
700-850 TADV 12 14 15 15 15 12 10 6 11 10 9 19 73
LAND (KM) 1711 1728 1691 1656 1631 1619 1683 1727 1483 1211 878 723 1047
LAT (DEG N) 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 49.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 13 18 25 31 34
HEAT CONTENT 18 22 27 31 32 21 14 6 10 3 4 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 14 CX,CY: -5/ 13
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 18. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -29.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 2. 0. -1. 3. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 13. 13. 12. 11. 13. 13.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.0 49.0
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/12/16 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.05 0.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.19 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.96 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.36 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 0.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.3% 6.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/12/16 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/12/2016 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 38 39 40 41 48 48 47 46 48 48
18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 37 38 45 45 44 43 45 45
12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 34 41 41 40 39 41 41
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 28 35 35 34 33 35 35
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT