* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 53 49 46 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 53 49 46 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 56 53 49 44 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 36 44 50 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 13 13 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 198 198 200 194 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.9 14.6 12.3 12.7 13.0 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 77 75 74 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 74 73 72 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.4 -52.1 -51.0 -50.1 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 51 54 53 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 20 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 154 139 125 131 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 37 38 44 61 -86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -37 -73 -82 -100 -87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1132 1428 1234 984 881 777 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 46.3 50.0 53.7 56.8 59.8 63.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.0 33.4 28.8 24.7 20.7 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 48 47 43 38 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 47 CX,CY: 30/ 36 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -12. -17. -20. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 1. -9. -20. -29. -38. -48. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -6. -9. -20. -34. -51. -65. -77. -90.-100.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 46.3 38.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 77.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 242.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/16/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 53 49 46 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 47 44 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 44 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT