* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 11/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 25 29 34 44 49 46 57 46 32 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 4 2 0 4 5 -3 2 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 253 253 251 246 245 263 293 302 332 345 344 333 286 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.4 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 133 130 129 126 124 126 134 134 132 129 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 117 115 113 112 110 108 108 114 116 114 112 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 2 0 1 1 4 5 8 9 10 2 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 70 66 59 53 46 38 32 28 28 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 52 52 46 38 4 -25 -41 -71 -81 -91 -53 -69 200 MB DIV 39 60 54 37 10 21 0 -51 -88 -92 -55 -22 -22 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 -2 -2 2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 406 404 371 399 433 449 355 322 405 372 333 334 361 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.9 26.2 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.9 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.7 93.8 93.9 93.5 93.0 92.0 90.7 89.2 88.6 89.1 90.0 91.2 92.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 4 5 5 6 7 5 3 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 18 10 9 17 27 31 30 28 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 868 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 6. 1. -9. -20. -30. -34. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -3. -10. -20. -29. -30. -25. -22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 11/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 11/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 11/07/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)