* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 09/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 49 56 60 65 69 71 68 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 49 56 60 65 69 56 38 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 40 44 48 52 56 61 54 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 16 14 10 17 11 14 7 7 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 2 2 2 0 -1 1 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 272 251 243 251 238 233 284 259 267 244 277 312 338 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 154 155 154 153 155 156 157 157 155 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 141 138 136 136 135 134 137 140 143 142 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.0 -51.6 -50.3 -50.8 -49.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 7 6 10 5 8 5 9 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 81 81 82 83 88 87 87 87 88 87 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 12 15 16 18 22 22 19 11 850 MB ENV VOR 100 97 93 103 101 119 120 123 123 137 137 137 131 200 MB DIV 83 105 83 83 75 112 99 129 148 148 89 117 67 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 7 3 4 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 102 121 140 140 124 83 68 84 130 87 -34 -73 -42 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 3 2 2 1 1 2 4 6 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 15 15 14 13 14 17 18 63 0 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 26. 30. 35. 39. 41. 38. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 09/12/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932013 INVEST 09/12/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 09/12/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)