* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 09/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 43 48 56 61 66 70 69 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 36 44 50 43 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 30 32 35 39 35 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 14 12 16 9 15 11 12 10 6 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 0 -3 0 0 0 -5 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 260 277 287 252 241 251 225 227 213 239 246 357 40 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 156 157 157 157 155 155 157 157 154 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 145 145 144 143 141 141 143 141 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -51.6 -52.0 -50.9 -51.2 -50.3 -50.6 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 9 6 10 7 10 6 10 8 12 700-500 MB RH 81 80 81 82 81 81 81 79 81 80 80 80 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 12 12 13 14 17 18 20 23 19 11 850 MB ENV VOR 100 97 91 92 94 97 105 122 120 137 140 149 173 200 MB DIV 96 91 89 99 101 62 73 86 119 113 120 81 97 700-850 TADV 9 4 0 2 -1 0 0 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) -122 -34 45 94 133 150 70 -49 -165 -281 -276 -222 -145 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.0 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.7 91.6 92.4 93.1 94.5 95.8 97.2 98.6 99.9 101.0 102.0 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 32 22 19 17 15 53 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 7. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 18. 23. 31. 36. 41. 45. 44. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 09/12/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932013 INVEST 09/12/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 09/12/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)