* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 09/11/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 55 62 68 73 75 80 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 31 34 42 50 43 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 30 32 37 42 39 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 12 15 11 12 9 13 6 4 5 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 3 -3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 295 284 251 265 280 239 242 229 214 279 330 51 21 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 156 158 158 157 157 155 157 157 158 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 147 148 147 144 144 142 143 143 143 142 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -51.7 -52.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -50.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 8 7 10 6 10 7 9 6 10 7 700-500 MB RH 79 77 79 77 80 80 81 82 80 82 81 81 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 10 10 11 13 13 15 16 16 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 103 114 117 108 113 105 112 120 141 145 134 151 151 200 MB DIV 79 97 83 79 78 110 57 84 97 90 76 114 113 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -8 -6 LAND (KM) -63 -145 -63 21 55 121 72 -44 -173 -250 -168 -101 -24 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.7 90.6 91.5 92.4 93.9 95.3 96.7 98.0 99.2 100.3 101.1 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 34 4 17 17 13 49 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 30. 37. 43. 48. 50. 55. 60. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 09/11/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932013 INVEST 09/11/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 09/11/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED