* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 09/11/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 37 44 51 57 64 68 71 73 76 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 30 38 44 51 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 30 34 38 43 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 7 14 17 11 12 10 11 5 7 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 278 293 283 245 269 248 248 222 216 233 333 11 351 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 153 154 156 158 157 155 157 157 156 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 141 144 144 145 145 144 142 144 143 141 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 78 76 78 78 80 80 80 80 80 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 16 18 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 98 101 109 114 107 104 107 103 132 134 149 151 153 200 MB DIV 59 77 78 71 49 88 79 74 88 89 70 94 80 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 4 -2 1 -3 0 -5 -2 -7 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 0 -73 -115 -36 30 114 112 12 -114 -252 -225 -143 -67 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.2 18.9 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.9 89.8 90.7 91.5 93.2 94.7 96.2 97.6 99.0 100.1 101.0 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 0 31 33 24 17 15 6 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 19. 26. 32. 39. 43. 46. 49. 51. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 09/11/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932013 INVEST 09/11/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 09/11/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED