* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 09/11/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 47 54 57 62 65 68 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 24 25 34 42 49 44 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 24 25 31 35 40 38 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 10 7 14 11 15 13 16 11 4 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 -2 -2 1 -5 0 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 256 284 289 282 245 280 248 247 228 248 294 307 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 150 153 158 157 157 156 157 156 158 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 136 140 143 146 145 143 143 143 142 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 7 10 7 11 7 10 7 11 700-500 MB RH 79 76 77 77 77 77 78 79 80 79 79 76 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 6 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 88 88 91 101 104 104 100 112 120 144 146 140 154 200 MB DIV 66 54 59 80 73 57 85 58 65 68 62 47 44 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 2 3 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 95 3 -45 -140 -43 100 151 99 -27 -174 -282 -198 -133 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.1 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.8 87.7 88.5 89.4 90.3 92.2 93.8 95.3 96.7 98.2 99.4 100.4 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 42 66 18 32 22 17 14 50 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 34. 37. 42. 45. 48. 53. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 09/11/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932013 INVEST 09/11/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 09/11/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)