* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 09/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 35 43 52 57 63 64 67 68 71 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 32 41 46 52 42 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 22 24 30 35 40 46 40 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 15 16 10 17 10 14 15 15 7 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 337 253 297 315 307 278 258 247 234 235 198 238 184 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 145 150 154 158 157 157 155 157 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 133 135 139 143 145 143 143 141 142 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 79 76 76 76 74 77 79 79 81 78 79 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 12 12 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 81 88 87 89 99 104 99 107 94 122 122 137 153 200 MB DIV 67 70 58 56 63 53 84 60 55 61 99 73 81 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 2 -3 3 -1 2 -1 -3 -1 1 LAND (KM) 164 75 -11 -74 -122 60 163 174 82 -40 -167 -259 -300 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.9 87.7 88.6 89.5 91.2 93.0 94.4 95.8 97.1 98.5 99.6 100.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 51 25 64 17 33 18 17 16 53 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 23. 32. 37. 43. 44. 47. 48. 51. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 09/10/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932013 INVEST 09/10/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 09/10/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED