* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 09/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 46 54 59 62 67 69 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 23 25 31 39 46 52 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 22 24 29 34 40 45 35 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 7 13 10 12 10 12 12 14 8 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -2 -2 0 -3 0 -1 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 318 334 269 294 303 248 291 242 245 232 262 240 232 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 143 145 148 155 158 157 155 155 157 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 133 134 137 144 146 145 142 141 143 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 10 7 11 7 11 7 10 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 77 76 77 75 78 78 79 76 77 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 14 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 68 72 81 86 92 100 93 98 100 110 136 136 149 200 MB DIV 59 52 57 39 54 69 44 64 54 63 67 92 77 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -3 -2 3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 174 86 -1 -56 -139 47 152 168 43 -91 -229 -270 -186 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.8 87.6 88.5 89.3 91.1 93.0 94.6 96.1 97.6 99.0 100.1 101.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 52 33 63 17 26 18 17 11 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 34. 39. 42. 47. 49. 51. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 09/10/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932013 INVEST 09/10/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 09/10/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)