* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 08/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 53 56 58 57 53 52 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 53 56 58 57 53 52 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 47 54 58 59 59 59 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 3 2 4 12 14 13 14 13 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 6 5 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 10 3 356 43 122 141 170 213 213 227 203 238 224 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 125 124 122 117 113 112 113 116 120 123 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 122 121 118 112 107 105 105 109 114 115 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 74 73 73 71 65 65 62 60 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 16 15 15 14 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 53 50 51 57 57 50 49 52 59 50 53 43 40 200 MB DIV 76 58 65 77 90 36 29 1 0 -13 -12 -18 -9 700-850 TADV -11 -12 -12 -11 -10 -8 -4 0 2 3 4 5 7 LAND (KM) 602 713 828 966 1106 1387 1650 1881 2086 2050 1866 1721 1618 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 2 8 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 26. 28. 27. 23. 22. 20. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 08/15/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 08/15/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)