* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 08/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 57 62 63 61 57 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 57 62 63 61 57 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 56 62 63 62 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 7 3 5 9 15 17 19 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 5 4 6 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 24 36 22 18 13 76 123 171 221 221 241 229 243 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.0 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 129 128 124 115 112 113 114 117 121 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 128 126 125 122 112 108 107 107 109 113 113 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 77 72 73 69 68 62 59 54 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 15 14 13 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 36 38 42 41 41 55 46 56 55 67 58 62 42 200 MB DIV 57 61 73 62 58 66 41 40 -5 -11 -15 -13 0 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -8 -8 -11 -14 -10 -11 -5 -2 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 413 490 574 679 790 1074 1389 1699 1984 2173 2036 1936 1888 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.0 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.7 24.8 27.5 30.4 33.2 35.8 38.2 40.6 42.8 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 13 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 4 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 3 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 32. 37. 38. 36. 32. 30. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 08/14/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 08/14/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)