* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 08/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 40 50 58 62 61 61 60 61 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 40 50 58 62 61 61 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 40 48 54 57 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 9 8 6 6 8 12 10 11 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 6 5 4 1 0 1 -1 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 29 26 38 23 19 5 90 124 184 183 201 196 207 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 133 132 130 127 122 115 114 115 118 119 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 129 128 127 124 119 110 109 108 110 111 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 78 77 74 74 71 72 66 68 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 13 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 38 43 38 46 49 43 37 34 40 42 47 200 MB DIV 68 55 62 71 62 67 59 48 51 3 0 -5 -25 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -8 -9 -13 -10 -9 -7 0 0 2 6 LAND (KM) 291 372 456 555 659 915 1202 1505 1765 2013 2026 1891 1765 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.3 15.1 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.5 21.4 22.5 23.5 26.0 28.7 31.5 33.9 36.2 38.2 40.2 42.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 12 13 14 13 12 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 3 4 6 6 2 0 0 1 3 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 30. 38. 42. 41. 41. 40. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 08/14/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 08/14/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)