* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 08/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 45 53 58 58 57 56 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 45 53 58 58 57 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 35 41 46 50 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 10 6 5 2 4 11 11 11 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 9 11 7 10 7 1 1 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 38 30 20 26 12 12 331 159 156 214 215 250 224 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 133 132 125 121 115 112 111 112 113 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 129 129 121 119 111 106 104 104 105 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 77 77 73 72 68 67 59 54 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 12 14 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 20 31 38 40 68 54 56 45 55 42 44 200 MB DIV 43 38 30 58 81 78 90 43 19 -12 -2 -19 -2 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -7 -10 -11 -14 -27 -19 -9 -10 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 129 232 307 389 484 720 999 1316 1613 1876 2089 2133 2054 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.3 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 18.0 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.9 24.2 26.8 29.7 32.4 34.8 36.8 38.9 40.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 12 14 14 13 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 5 4 4 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 25. 33. 38. 38. 37. 36. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 08/14/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 08/14/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED