* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 08/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 44 50 55 56 55 54 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 44 50 55 56 55 54 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 35 39 43 46 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 11 7 3 3 4 5 13 12 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 7 9 11 9 7 6 1 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 48 34 31 28 27 339 316 248 184 199 228 230 227 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 133 129 122 119 115 113 112 112 114 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 133 130 126 119 116 111 108 105 104 105 107 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 73 73 71 68 68 63 62 53 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 13 14 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 24 36 41 49 60 74 77 82 72 57 41 200 MB DIV 30 31 41 35 58 66 58 39 6 6 -12 -15 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -6 -8 -8 -11 -14 -9 -10 -8 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 16 99 194 314 440 731 1046 1371 1698 1959 2174 2096 2007 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.7 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.4 21.6 24.3 27.2 30.2 33.2 35.6 37.6 39.2 40.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 13 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 19 9 6 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 24. 30. 35. 36. 35. 34. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 08/13/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 08/13/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)