* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 06/17/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 39 41 46 48 52 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 25 26 26 27 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 18 18 16 14 17 6 6 4 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 -1 0 -2 2 -1 -1 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 214 222 239 251 250 244 246 243 165 198 138 189 239 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 150 153 158 160 154 152 154 153 149 148 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 144 146 151 151 145 141 142 141 138 137 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 8 10 7 10 9 11 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 68 64 64 65 64 65 68 66 65 60 61 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 7 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 12 10 0 -10 -10 0 17 18 26 42 25 27 200 MB DIV 58 37 22 32 37 10 29 45 23 38 59 39 18 700-850 TADV 9 2 3 -3 -2 2 -5 -1 -5 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 24 33 -81 -173 -133 -52 0 -45 -179 -263 -178 -124 -16 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 88.2 89.2 90.2 91.1 93.0 94.7 96.4 98.0 99.6 101.4 103.2 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 33 63 0 0 27 2 27 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. 16. 21. 23. 27. 25. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 06/17/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 06/17/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)