* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 06/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 36 39 40 43 45 45 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 30 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 8 13 12 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 1 3 -3 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 213 208 210 234 244 241 243 241 181 188 177 221 230 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 143 145 148 155 151 145 145 145 144 139 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 137 138 141 147 143 135 135 135 135 130 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 11 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 6 700-500 MB RH 72 68 65 65 65 66 67 66 65 64 64 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 31 17 18 8 0 -2 8 21 21 38 35 30 200 MB DIV 79 64 50 38 33 34 22 25 39 27 63 67 49 700-850 TADV 8 9 2 1 -2 -3 -7 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) -10 35 24 -78 -169 -111 -29 -49 -165 -221 -118 -53 43 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 87.1 88.2 89.2 90.1 92.1 93.9 95.8 97.6 99.4 101.4 103.5 105.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 50 24 60 0 0 19 16 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 06/17/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 06/17/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)