* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 06/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 31 33 38 39 44 44 45 43 V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 25 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 13 14 13 16 11 11 9 7 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 0 0 0 -5 0 -1 0 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 201 226 223 219 237 258 255 243 218 187 189 219 235 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 142 145 153 153 147 143 145 144 139 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 134 136 139 146 145 138 133 135 134 130 124 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 10 10 8 10 7 10 9 11 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 66 66 64 67 67 64 65 64 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 7 8 7 6 8 6 8 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 29 15 20 -6 -7 -4 14 22 25 27 22 200 MB DIV 117 87 60 51 33 26 13 16 32 24 34 48 9 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 0 0 -4 0 -8 -3 -5 -4 1 -1 LAND (KM) -52 0 45 31 -81 -133 -49 -15 -92 -235 -198 -139 -44 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 86.0 87.1 88.1 89.1 91.1 93.1 94.9 96.8 98.5 100.4 102.5 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 15 51 37 60 0 23 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 18. 19. 24. 24. 25. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 06/17/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 06/17/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)