* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 09/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 35 41 47 55 51 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 26 24 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 37 48 64 76 87 80 80 70 61 59 66 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -5 -10 -12 -4 -9 1 -2 3 -5 5 SHEAR DIR 210 201 196 189 194 206 215 226 239 269 299 326 338 SST (C) 28.6 27.5 26.6 25.9 25.3 24.3 18.9 15.6 14.0 14.0 15.7 17.5 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 133 124 118 113 107 83 76 74 74 75 76 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 120 113 109 105 99 78 73 72 72 72 71 74 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 59 64 65 60 52 38 32 27 24 27 26 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 72 112 148 132 76 -10 -110 -161 -145 -131 -103 -74 200 MB DIV 90 136 126 81 68 41 39 5 -3 -24 -46 -59 -92 700-850 TADV -14 7 2 -24 -49 -97 -87 -130 -28 -62 0 -3 -23 LAND (KM) -14 -94 -225 -377 -461 -250 -76 3 -15 617 1278 1546 1596 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.2 32.5 33.9 35.3 38.9 43.1 47.1 50.7 52.2 50.3 46.8 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 90.5 89.1 86.7 84.2 78.3 71.7 64.9 56.9 46.0 35.5 30.1 28.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 21 25 27 31 32 32 33 33 29 21 18 HEAT CONTENT 2 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 0. -19. -34. -46. -52. -59. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 10. 16. 22. 30. 26. 11. -5. -18. -30. -40. -46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 09/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 09/17/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)