* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 09/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 42 48 53 59 56 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 29 28 28 27 28 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 29 28 27 27 28 29 30 32 29 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 35 51 67 74 88 86 76 80 89 80 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -5 -11 -17 -15 -2 -2 -13 -16 1 SHEAR DIR 224 199 198 195 192 199 209 217 226 227 241 265 288 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 27.9 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.4 20.6 15.0 13.2 10.4 12.2 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 138 126 119 113 106 86 73 71 70 71 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 135 124 113 109 104 97 79 70 69 68 69 71 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -56.1 -56.6 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 62 62 52 44 38 42 44 43 43 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 44 70 102 116 79 29 -78 -114 -116 -140 -126 -114 200 MB DIV 55 76 128 106 77 76 42 41 40 59 28 -21 -60 700-850 TADV -2 -14 -12 -11 -29 -53 -75 -32 36 71 45 -22 -56 LAND (KM) 141 -5 -130 -181 -266 -400 -199 -105 -146 7 -103 459 1088 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.7 30.9 32.0 33.1 35.5 38.8 42.2 45.8 49.8 53.1 54.4 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 92.5 91.4 89.7 88.0 82.9 77.7 72.4 68.6 64.5 58.1 49.2 39.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 18 21 26 26 24 23 25 26 28 32 HEAT CONTENT 34 1 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. -6. -23. -38. -50. -58. -65. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 29. 26. 14. -3. -18. -30. -42. -52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 09/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 09/17/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)