* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 09/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 42 49 44 34 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 28 27 27 28 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 24 26 26 28 32 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 36 32 27 28 35 67 75 79 79 80 80 86 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -1 0 0 -1 2 -3 -10 -8 -12 -9 -5 -9 SHEAR DIR 245 242 244 230 208 206 198 208 214 225 225 225 239 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.5 28.0 26.9 26.4 25.8 19.1 15.1 13.5 8.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 165 167 162 140 127 123 117 81 73 71 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 142 147 151 147 126 117 113 105 75 70 69 67 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.5 -55.7 -56.3 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 60 61 58 57 63 57 52 45 44 43 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 5 6 7 10 7 6 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 16 16 22 36 84 104 57 -1 -89 -92 -66 -99 200 MB DIV 23 43 45 39 73 118 93 37 37 54 66 74 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 14 2 -7 -6 -53 -87 -57 24 88 50 75 LAND (KM) 140 209 174 151 27 -128 -363 -315 -50 34 -179 -78 4 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.4 29.4 31.5 33.7 36.3 39.6 42.9 46.7 51.0 54.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.8 95.2 94.6 93.6 92.5 89.7 85.5 80.4 75.0 70.3 67.3 63.8 58.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 14 15 18 23 26 25 23 23 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 48 42 44 36 14 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 3. -10. -24. -38. -46. -54. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 22. 29. 24. 14. 1. -7. -15. -24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 09/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 09/16/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)