* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 09/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 28 35 42 40 34 24 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 28 29 27 27 27 26 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 25 26 27 27 27 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 35 33 27 30 43 67 67 76 76 76 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 0 0 0 4 0 -6 -6 -10 -6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 257 245 241 245 235 199 197 197 214 220 227 227 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 28.7 27.6 26.7 26.5 22.6 15.7 14.3 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 162 166 167 150 135 126 124 94 73 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 137 143 149 150 136 125 116 113 85 70 69 67 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.9 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 8 7 6 8 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 66 60 63 59 61 65 60 52 41 43 44 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 5 6 8 7 7 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 16 17 21 52 116 73 30 -64 -103 -99 -62 200 MB DIV 26 26 41 47 44 109 86 67 32 45 51 80 85 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 15 3 0 -35 -93 -61 -19 67 127 98 LAND (KM) 124 172 229 201 172 -14 -203 -276 -93 -5 -67 -24 -289 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.6 27.4 28.2 30.2 32.3 34.8 37.9 41.4 45.0 48.9 53.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 95.5 95.0 94.1 93.2 90.5 86.8 81.7 76.6 71.8 68.4 65.7 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 13 17 22 25 26 23 22 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 54 43 42 44 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. -7. -19. -31. -40. -47. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 20. 14. 4. -5. -13. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 09/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 09/16/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)