* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 63 69 76 75 71 63 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 63 69 76 75 71 63 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 56 63 69 69 62 53 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 5 2 9 8 18 27 35 48 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 -4 0 2 6 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 148 171 206 256 263 300 284 255 250 256 246 250 246 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.4 25.3 24.3 22.6 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 128 125 119 119 122 120 110 103 93 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 118 114 111 108 103 103 106 105 97 92 84 80 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 43 44 44 46 52 55 55 55 50 51 48 39 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 4 5 6 8 9 13 15 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -97 -109 -110 -98 -79 -60 -43 -19 -6 21 21 -21 -2 200 MB DIV -12 0 10 8 18 9 16 16 46 23 -1 4 -3 700-850 TADV 4 5 11 7 -3 -4 0 10 7 14 20 6 4 LAND (KM) 1620 1711 1609 1529 1454 1354 1407 1557 1762 1940 1936 1505 1067 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 13 15 15 16 16 17 19 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 15 13 7 3 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 16 CX,CY: -4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 7. 2. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 33. 39. 46. 45. 41. 33. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/15/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)