* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 51 59 68 73 73 70 65 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 51 59 68 73 73 70 65 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 46 52 59 65 67 64 57 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 3 7 5 15 14 21 30 34 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 0 2 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 144 114 130 163 255 262 298 260 256 257 245 244 249 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.7 26.2 26.6 26.9 26.1 25.4 24.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 136 132 129 122 118 121 125 117 111 103 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 119 115 112 106 103 106 109 104 98 89 82 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -53.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 41 42 43 43 48 54 52 49 52 50 52 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 13 15 17 17 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -93 -101 -113 -96 -68 -51 -37 -18 -4 -10 -9 -12 200 MB DIV -2 -6 3 -2 9 6 1 12 11 33 22 25 13 700-850 TADV 14 6 5 7 10 -14 3 -7 3 9 29 23 25 LAND (KM) 1543 1614 1693 1664 1556 1425 1419 1547 1744 1930 2014 1799 1595 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 14 15 15 15 18 17 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 15 14 6 4 9 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 38. 43. 43. 40. 35. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/15/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)