* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 57 63 70 74 76 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 57 63 70 74 76 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 44 52 61 70 74 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 9 11 8 11 6 3 7 10 13 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 183 114 127 137 145 138 207 256 264 270 287 279 274 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.0 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 144 141 138 132 129 123 125 128 125 118 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 127 123 119 113 112 107 109 112 109 102 98 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 39 41 43 45 49 55 53 56 56 50 47 43 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 8 7 9 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -72 -79 -89 -101 -84 -80 -60 -52 -33 -20 -10 -22 200 MB DIV 12 0 -2 5 3 24 16 12 7 12 10 5 -15 700-850 TADV 14 14 3 1 5 -9 -3 6 7 12 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 1491 1474 1469 1510 1559 1571 1501 1501 1622 1790 1965 2128 2151 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.0 27.8 28.7 29.6 31.3 32.8 33.3 32.8 32.2 31.8 31.6 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 54.8 55.7 56.2 56.6 56.5 54.3 50.8 47.3 44.0 40.8 37.9 36.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 9 13 15 15 14 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 23 18 17 14 12 11 14 13 8 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 32. 38. 45. 49. 51. 52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/15/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)