* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 43 52 62 71 74 74 74 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 35 43 52 62 71 74 74 74 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 47 56 64 67 64 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 6 10 9 10 9 13 22 30 40 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 184 209 206 150 150 198 203 249 261 270 275 263 263 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.1 25.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 146 142 139 133 127 120 121 121 117 109 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 129 124 120 116 111 105 107 105 101 96 93 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 37 40 43 42 45 45 52 57 54 55 52 51 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 5 5 4 5 6 8 11 11 12 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -70 -72 -83 -90 -99 -76 -55 -34 -13 -2 -8 -16 200 MB DIV 11 1 -1 5 0 3 12 7 29 7 20 -1 -15 700-850 TADV 14 14 11 5 2 1 -6 -4 1 9 10 18 7 LAND (KM) 1513 1480 1461 1500 1547 1656 1527 1426 1478 1609 1735 1949 1856 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 11 14 16 17 14 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 23 21 18 15 12 3 6 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 18. 27. 37. 46. 49. 49. 49. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/15/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)