* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 51 60 68 78 82 85 85 82 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 51 60 68 78 82 85 85 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 43 50 58 67 76 82 79 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 8 9 9 13 2 9 4 14 27 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 -5 -3 -2 -2 1 5 SHEAR DIR 215 203 219 206 171 199 181 236 255 268 266 252 230 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.4 26.8 26.5 25.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 146 144 137 132 129 121 126 123 111 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 131 129 126 118 113 113 109 114 112 100 90 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 38 37 40 42 43 47 56 59 58 55 50 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 12 12 14 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -62 -72 -71 -80 -91 -68 -60 -45 -30 -13 12 23 200 MB DIV 24 10 15 2 13 1 25 28 27 5 28 19 13 700-850 TADV 12 12 14 13 6 3 -1 -9 4 3 9 8 -2 LAND (KM) 1599 1527 1467 1457 1458 1549 1551 1494 1467 1602 1798 2024 1764 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.3 28.1 29.7 31.5 33.0 33.8 33.9 34.5 35.7 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 53.3 54.5 55.4 56.2 56.9 56.5 53.9 49.4 44.4 39.1 33.8 29.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 11 16 20 21 22 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 25 23 21 16 14 11 5 9 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 6. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 6. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 35. 43. 53. 57. 60. 60. 57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/14/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)